🐈 Good morning, RVA: Understanding risk, a casino roadblock, and dangerous kittens

Good morning, RVA! It’s 46 °F, and today looks lovely. You can expect highs near 70 °F, making today the Andrew Freiden Verified Best Day of the Week™. Lunch outside seems like a very strong possibility.
 

Water cooler

Katelyn Jetelina, my current favorite epidemiologist with a newsletter, has a great new post about understanding risk that features two charts I’ve wanted for months and months. Before 2020, most of us went about our lives never giving much thought to the flu, despite (or maybe because of?) the annual reminders to get your flu shot. The flu is a real and serious disease that kills a bunch of people each year, but, for whatever reason, the risk of catching and dying from influenza is a tolerable one for most Americans. This graph compares the lethality of COVID to that of the flu over the course of the pandemic, and, right now, the risk of dying from COVID-19 is about twice that of dying from the flu. Due to “vaccines, infection-induced immunity, therapeutics, better understanding of care, and many more factors” that’s way down from just a year ago when COVID-19 was 20 times deadlier than influenza. Is “2x flu” a risk that feels worth taking for you? Maybe! It’s certainly a good data point to have while making decisions about living your life. The second chart I wanted to point out is this one that standardizes your risk of dying doing normal, everyday things by using “MicroMorts”, or a one-in-a-million chance of dying. For example, you have about a one-in-a-million chance of dying every time you drive 250 miles, so that’s a risk of 1 MM. Motorcycles are particularly deadly and have a risk level of 4 MM for driving just 25 miles. This table lists the risk level in MicroMorts for unvaccinated, not boosted, and boosted individuals by age. For an individual aged 18–49 that’s up-to-date on their vaccines, the risk of dying from COVID-19 (48 MM) is significantly less than driving for a year (100 MM) or giving birth in the US (210 MM). I don’t do either of those things, but—#bancars discussion aside—they are risks that I mostly accept as I move about the world. Your level of risk tolerance may be different than mine, and that’s OK, but knowing the current risk level and how it compares to daily activity seems like an important tool for this coronatransitional time.
 

Jonathan Spiers at Richmond BizSense reports on a fascinating update to Richmond’s Casino Saga: Last week, Senator Joe Morrissey introduced a budget amendment that would prevent Richmond from holding a second casino referendum until 2023. The state budget, with this amendment included, passed the Senate and now sits with the House. Morrissey’s previous legislative efforts to prevent Richmond’s repeat referendum failed, but this one seems to have at least a little bit of momentum—we’ll see if House Republicans agree. Also interesting, Spiers reports on a new resolution introduced by Councilmember Lynch (RES. 2022-R014) that would request a third of all future, theoretical casino revenues be kept in a reserve fund to cover the anticipated decreases in schools funding from the state. While I’m not necessarily against this idea, I hope this is not a resolution that will provide cover for Councilmembers voting to lower the real estate tax should a casino ultimately be approved by voters!
 

NBC12’s Hannah Smith has a good reminder not to pick up random kittens—no matter how cute—because you never know where they’ve been or if they have rabies.
 

Whoa, in big Richmond Institution news, Buz and Ned’s on Arthur Ashe Boulevard has closed. Richard Hayes at RVAHub has the details. Luckily for Buz fans, the 8205 W. Broad Street location will remain open. I should look up what the Diamond District plan says about this stretch of Arthur Ashe Boulevard. Tall buildings, I hope?
 

This morning’s longread

Amazon Opens a Whole Foods With the Next Step in Automation

Seems 100% certain that Amazon will eventually use this technology for evil, right?
 

As a longtime customer of Glover Park’s Whole Foods, I had missed the dark, cramped and often chaotic store and was excited to explore the changes. But somewhere between the palm scan and the six-pack banana bundles, I began to feel ambivalent. I noticed a sign near the entrance that forbade shoppers to take photos or videos inside. My eyes drifted toward the ceiling, where I noticed hundreds of small black plastic boxes hanging from the rafters. An employee jumped in. “Those are the cameras that will follow you during your shopping experience,” she explained, with no hint of irony.
 

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Picture of the Day

A small red bird spent most of the afternoon rapping, rapping at my chamber door. Freaked me out.