Good morning, RVA! It’s 54 °F, and today you can expect more of the same! Get ready for temperatures in the 60s, rain here or there, and lots of time to spend pensively staring out of the window. Warmer temperatures, at least, should arrive tomorrow.

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As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 763 new positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth and 33 new deaths as a result of the virus. VDH reports 103 new cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 57, Henrico: 22, and Richmond: 35). Since this pandemic began, 162 people have died in the Richmond region. That’s four days in the last week with over 100 new cases in Richmond, Henrico, and Chesterfield combined. Before this week, that’d only happened once—back on May 7th. We know Mayor Stoney has his eye on the data, but I wonder what folks in Chesterfield are thinking as they watch their percent positivity numbers creep upwards. Look at that graph, you can call it flat if you want, but it certainly doesn’t show a fortnight of decrease. If I lived in Chesterfield, which I do not, I might send my Supervisor and County Manager an email with a question or two.

Today, City Council’s Finance and Economic Development committee meets at 1:00 PM. I typically never ever talk about this committee because who even understands how money works?? However, this afternoon they’ll consider Councilmember Gray’s RES. 2020-R026 (PDF) which would set up a restaurant-only grant program in the City of Richmond. If I’m reading it right, it returns to restaurants any meals taxes they paid/will pay in March, April, May, and June—minus the bit of meals tax that go toward schools. It also would give restaurants back half of their BPOL tax over that same time period. Again, just cue up and insert my rant about how relief policies are good but we should be holistic in designing them so that other service industry businesses are not excluded. The Mayor’s administration put together an Administrative Impact Statement (PDF) on this resolution, which puts it bluntly: “The program would potentially have a multi-million dollar negative impact on the FY2020 general fund during uncertain economic times without any identified funding source, and add an administrative burden to implement.” Remember, RES. 2020-R026 is a non-binding resolution that just asks the mayor to submit the budget amendment ordinances necessary to create this program.

Good morning, RVA! It’s 55 °F, and you can expect potentially soggy highs in the upper 60s. Keep an eye out for rain later tonight. The good news: The seven-day forecast has some sunshine near its end!

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As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 752 new positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth and five new deaths as a result of the virus. VDH reports 53 new cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 14, Henrico: 20, and Richmond: 21). Since this pandemic began, 160 people have died in the Richmond region. Here’s a chart of the seven-day averages of the number of new cases in Chesterfield, Henrico, and Richmond. You can see Henrico’s big, quick spike early on with its nation-leading outbreak at the Canterbury Rehabilitation & Healthcare Center. Now each locality in the entire region sees, on average, about the same number of new cases each day as Henrico did during that terrible outbreak. For whatever reason, VDH’s data dashboard won’t show me the percent positivity for each locality this morning, but the line graph still exists. Even including antibody tests, which, remember, increases the denominator in the calculation, percent positivity across the entire region is up over the last week—slightly up in Chesterfield and Henrico, way up in Richmond.

The Governor named a bunch of folks to his COVID-19 Education Work Group, which will “help chart a path forward for determining how schools can safely reopen later this year.” My immediate impression from that very first sentence of the press release is that the group has decided to open schools in 2020 regardless of whatever we learn about COVID-19 between now and then. I’m certainly not saying the Commonwealth needs to cancel even more school—the current situation is untenable and by most counts inequitable—but I’d love to let the work group do some…work…and report back with what they’ve decided as the best path forward. Along those lines, I much prefer this quote, later on in the press release, from the Secretary of Education: “As we begin to think about how Virginia’s education system can operate in the summer and fall, it is crucial that we have the advice of a diverse, thoughtful group of education leaders…This group will use their expertise to guide our approach and help ensure that all voices are heard and all recommendations are made through the lens of equity.” Or even this quote from the Northam himself, from the recap of the Governor’s Monday press briefing by the Richmond Times-Dispatch’s Justin Mattingly: "It is very important for me to get our children back in schools…As soon as we can safely get our students back into the classroom, we will do that. I am hopeful that our students will be back in the classroom this fall.” Unfortunately, scrolling through the list of work group members I don’t see anyone from the Richmond region (unless you count Fredericksburg or Powhatan) and I don’t really see urban school districts represented (other than Chesapeake). I wish I had more time or I would pull the racial demographics of the school districts and the localities represented. A quick, back-of-the-napkin census query shows that the localities represented have a 56% White population—of course, that could be and probably is vastly, vastly different than the demographics of their public schools. Anyway, someone get Jason Kamras on this committee.

Good morning, RVA! It’s 61 °F, and that’s about the high for today. We’ve got a chance of rain today and maybe every day for the rest of this week. I’m…not looking forward to spending even more time indoors.

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As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 705 new positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth and 7 new deaths as a result of the virus. VDH reports 53 new cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 29, Henrico: 26, and Richmond: 17). Since this pandemic began, 160 people have died in the Richmond region. Despite the relatively low number of new cases in the City, Richmond saw more new cases reported over the weekend than ever before (147). In good data news, VDH has update their dashboard to now show percent positivity by health district (tap on “Testing” and then you can select a locality from the drop down). Remember: 7-day positivity rate has become the go-to metric for the governor in his phased recovery plan, and now we’ve got the ability to see that metric change over time. Richmond’s 7-day positivity rate is 25.8% and has increased each of the last eight days. Chesterfield’s remains mostly flat around 11%, and Henrico’s sits at 13.7% having increased from 10.7% since May 12th. Turns out, jurisdictions are different, and the availability of more and more data continues to highlight the inequitable effects the coronavirus. To whit, over the weekend, Sabrina Moreno and Mel Leonor at the Richmond Times-Dispatch looked at the disparate impact COVID-19 has on Black and Latino communities: “Hispanic Virginians make up almost 30% of cases despite being only 9% of the state population. Black residents are 16% of cases, and almost 20% of the population, but in Richmond, make up 16 of the 18 deaths. One is Hispanic and one is not reported.” Additionally, Kate Masters at the Virginia Mercury continues her excellent healthdata reporting and has a good piece on how the Commonwealth still fails to meet the governor’s stated metrics for safely moving into recovery. Masters’s piece will also give you some insight into how the data available from VDH has changed, sometimes abruptly, over the last couple of months—much to the dismay of spreadsheetidemiologists and local policy makers alike.

The City’s Planning Commission meets today to hear a presentation on Richmond 300, and you can take a peek at the slides beforehand. First, the draft of the plan drops on May 26th! That’s pretty exciting. Second, you should gird yourself for a bunch of topic- and geography-focused (virtual) meetings in June. Also, if you scroll down a bit in that PDF, you can see the results of the Planning for a Post-Pandemic Society survey I linked to a couple weeks back. Of particular interest to me is page 11 which shows responses to “Which features do you think individuals will want their neighborhoods to have in a post-pandemic society?” Top four answers: Sidewalks, a public park within a short walk, a commercial area within a short walk, and bike lanes. People want safe, easy ways to get to the things they need to live a thriving life—without a car! To prepare for this—while addressing folks' health and safety needs—the City can and should pilot dozens of miles of slow/open streets all over the place. Honestly, the City should have done this months ago, but, for whatever reason, it has not. In fact, when places like Ashland are piloting open streets and talking about making them permanent, it feels like our City’s leadership actively does not want this sort of thing to happen. You should ask them why not (rvamayor@richmondgov.com and City Council contact information).

Good morning, RVA! It’s 49 °F, and we’ve got a potential bit of rain moving through the area this morning. After that, though, get stoked for temperatures in the mid 70s and beyond until at least next week. Find a reason to spend some time outside!

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As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 946 new positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth and 36 new deaths as a result of the virus. VDH reports 92 new cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 25, Henrico: 40, and Richmond: 27). We’ll get one more round of data this afternoon before the Governor’s planned move into Phase One, but, over the last couple of days: the seven-day average of the number of new cases has gone up, the seven-day average of hospitalizations has gone up, the seven-day average of the number of new deaths has gone up, the seven-day average of percent positivity (using unique people tested) has gone up, and the seven-day average of percent positivity (using testing events) has gone up. Some of those data points, especially the Governor’s key metric of percent positivity, rely on testing, which has also steadily gone up over the last couple of weeks. However, we just learned from Mel Leonor at the Richmond Times-Dispatch, in The Most Important Coronavirus Piece That I’ve Read In A While, that VDH had started to mix antibody test results with its standard, viral test results. To me—not a doctor or an expert—that seems confusing at best and misleading at worst. Yesterday, Alexis Madrigal and Robinson Meyer at the Atlantic have this incredibly damning piece that confirms a lot of my concerns with how the Governor is using unreliable data in his decisions to move into Phase One of recovery. You absolutely must read the entire thing, but I’m going to quote some of the more enraging bits. First, “Virginia’s decision to mix the results of two different kinds of tests marks a new low in data standards…By combining these two types of test, the state is able to portray itself as having a more robust infrastructure for tracking and containing the coronavirus than it actually does.” A Harvard professor of Global Health said of the practice, “It’s terrible. It messes up everything.” Meanwhile, the Governor’s Chief of Staff says that the practice is totally fine because other states are doing it too, but the Atlantic “could not find evidence that other states are blending test results in the way that [the Chief of Staff] claimed. In an email, a spokesperson for the Virginia Department of Health claimed that Arizona, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia also mingled viral and antibody results. This is false: Those three governments either separate out, or do not report, the result of negative antibody tests to the public.” Then, about how this impacts the Governor’s key percent positivity metric: “But because Virginia combines viral and antibody results, its positivity rate is unusable, said Jha, the Harvard professor…By lumping the two tests together, as Virginia has done, states can artificially improve their test-positivity rate.” Keep all that in mind as the Governor drags the Commonwealth into Phase One tomorrow.

Obviously, as an amateur spreadsheetidemiologist, I’m against the Governor’s rushed recovery plan—but I’m not the only one! Yesterday, the Virginia Legislative Black Caucus sent a letter to Governor Northam opposing the plans to begin Phase One tomorrow. I strongly agree with this: “Yet a premature reopening of Virginia’s economy under these aforementioned weaknesses in proper medical infrastructure and capacity will hit Black Virginians and Virginians of Color even harder. Under the current plan, and with the already existent racial disparities that this pandemic and economic crisis are perpetuating, we will be creating a situation where Black and Brown Virginians outside of Northern Virginia will become guinea pigs for our economy.” It’s times like these I’m proud that both of my state legislators are members of the VLBC.

Good morning, RVA! It’s 40 °F, and today looks like a great day to get outside and move your body around. Expect highs right around 70 °F and lots of sunshine. Take advantage of the opportunity!

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As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 730 new positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth and 41 new deaths as a result of the virus. VDH reports 90 new cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 48, Henrico: 23, and Richmond: 19). Locally, this is the third most new reported positive cases in a single day, and that finally got me to put together this chart of the seven-day average of new reported positive cases in Richmond, Chesterfield, and Henrico. As you can see, Chesterfield continues to report more new cases each day, Richmond’s either mostly flat or has a slightly increasing number of new cases, and Henrico is still coming down off its early peak. Statewide, reported deaths shot way up. Doctors and statisticians will hate how I use these numbers—so, grain of salt—but the CDC reports leading causes of deaths for each state, and in Virginia cancer killed 15,064 people in 2017 (the most recent data they’ve got). That’s an average of 41 people per day. Looking at it that way, yesterday, COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in the Commonwealth. Also, not that it matters anymore, VDH reported under 5,000 tests yesterday, and the average number of tests reported over the last six days (for dumb data reasons) is either 6,886 or 7,216—depending on how you define “test.” Both of those numbers are significantly less than 10,000. I’m interested in what the Governor will say at his regularly-scheduled 2:00 PM briefing today, the final one before the May 15th plunge into Phase One.

In potentially huge news locally, Justing Mattingly at the Richmond Times-Dispatch says Mayor Stoney “is expressing reservations about whether Friday is the right time for officials to start easing restrictions in the city” and that “Richmond is considering asking Northam for an exemption similar to what Northern Virginia received.” Heck yes, Mayor! I’m having…an unplanned emotional reaction…to finally reading about an elected official who I feel like has their focus on the health and safety of me, my family, and my neighbors. Yes, that’s for sure how normal people talk about feelings—as “unplanned emotional reactions.” Anyway, as I hinted at yesterday, I don’t think there’s much weight in the Governor’s continued “my restrictions are a floor not a ceiling” rhetoric. At the moment he appears way more focused on, in his words, “Uniformity across the region is critical to a successful strategy, rather than having restrictions piecemeal across towns and counties.” Here again is Mayor Stoney with the A+ response: "I understand that the governor wants everybody to be on the same page in the region to do so, but I think this is once again where being an independent city in this state kind of penalizes you…We’re different than the counties. That’s just the bottom line.” Super different than the counties in priorities: Both county managers from Henrico and Chesterfield say they plan on going ahead with the May 15th move into Phase One.

Good morning, RVA! It’s 38 °F, and highs today are still stuck in the low-to-mid 60s. Starting tomorrow and through the weekend, though, we should see highs in the 70s, 80s, and, maybe, even 90s. Get stoked for porches.

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As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 989 new positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth and 11 new deaths as a result of the virus. VDH reports 34 new cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 2, Henrico: 16, and Richmond: 16). At his presser yesterday, the Governor continued his push toward a May 15th move into Phase One of recovery. VPM has video of the briefing plus David Streever has the written recap. As per the last forever, Governor Northam leaned heavily on the percent positivity graph and defended Virginia’s cellar-dweller testing rate—which, to be fair, has significantly increased over the last couple of weeks. New yesterday, the Governor “confirmed he’ll use a regional approach to reopening the state…following feedback from leaders in Northern Virginia who say they aren’t ready.” Not so fast, Richmonders eager to continue sheltering in place! While the Gov keeps saying his metrics and goals for moving into Phase One are a floor not a ceiling, it does sound like some amount of regional coordination is needed if a city or county wanted to deviate from the May 15th plan. Here’s a quote from the Washington Post over the weekend: “Alena Yarmosky, a spokeswoman for Northam, said the governor requested the letter [from Northern Virginia localities] to avoid a situation where neighboring localities had different policies that could reduce their effectiveness.” Hmmmm, can you think of any neighboring localities that may have differing policies in how they want to move forward during this crisis? Oh, I don’t know, maybe an urban city with vastly different demographics and needs surrounded by suburban and rural counties? Virginia’s independent cities system strikes again! Meanwhile, at the national level, the New York Times says Dr. Fauci “intends to warn the Senate on Tuesday that Americans would experience ‘needless suffering and death’ if the country opens up too quickly.”

Mayor Stoney announced a COVID-19 health equity pilot which, with some support from the state, has collected 20,000 face masks and 20,000 bottles of hand sanitizer to distribute in Richmond’s underserved neighborhoods. Here’s the Mayor on why focusing on these communities is important: "COVID-19 isn’t singular in its disproportionate effect on communities of color with high poverty rates…The healthcare disparities highlighted by this pandemic are a manifestation of historic injustices, which we can help address with targeted, equity-driven efforts like this program.” He’s obviously not wrong! In the Richmond region, Black people represent a higher percentage of coronavirus positive cases, hospitalizations, and deaths than they do of the population (35%, 55%, and 44% respectively, compared to 32% of the regional population).

Good morning, RVA! It’s 38 °F, and highs today are still stuck in the low-to-mid 60s. Starting tomorrow and through the weekend, though, we should see highs in the 70s, 80s, and, maybe, even 90s. Get stoked for porches.

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As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 989 new positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth and 11 new deaths as a result of the virus. VDH reports 34 new cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 2, Henrico: 16, and Richmond: 16). At his presser yesterday, the Governor continued his push toward a May 15th move into Phase One of recovery. VPM has video of the briefing plus David Streever has the written recap. As per the last forever, Governor Northam leaned heavily on the percent positivity graph and defended Virginia’s cellar-dweller testing rate—which, to be fair, has significantly increased over the last couple of weeks. New yesterday, the Governor “confirmed he’ll use a regional approach to reopening the state…following feedback from leaders in Northern Virginia who say they aren’t ready.” Not so fast, Richmonders eager to continue sheltering in place! While the Gov keeps saying his metrics and goals for moving into Phase One are a floor not a ceiling, it does sound like some amount of regional coordination is needed if a city or county wanted to deviate from the May 15th plan. Here’s a quote from the Washington Post over the weekend: “Alena Yarmosky, a spokeswoman for Northam, said the governor requested the letter [from Northern Virginia localities] to avoid a situation where neighboring localities had different policies that could reduce their effectiveness.” Hmmmm, can you think of any neighboring localities that may have differing policies in how they want to move forward during this crisis? Oh, I don’t know, maybe an urban city with vastly different demographics and needs surrounded by suburban and rural counties? Virginia’s independent cities system strikes again! Meanwhile, at the national level, the New York Times says Dr. Fauci “intends to warn the Senate on Tuesday that Americans would experience ‘needless suffering and death’ if the country opens up too quickly.”

Mayor Stoney announced a COVID-19 health equity pilot which, with some support from the state, has collected 20,000 face masks and 20,000 bottles of hand sanitizer to distribute in Richmond’s underserved neighborhoods. Here’s the Mayor on why focusing on these communities is important: "COVID-19 isn’t singular in its disproportionate effect on communities of color with high poverty rates…The healthcare disparities highlighted by this pandemic are a manifestation of historic injustices, which we can help address with targeted, equity-driven efforts like this program.” He’s obviously not wrong! In the Richmond region, Black people represent a higher percentage of coronavirus positive cases, hospitalizations, and deaths than they do of the population (35%, 55%, and 44% respectively, compared to 32% of the regional population).

Good morning, RVA! It’s 51 °F, and highs today should hit somewhere in the low 60s. Stick around, though, because we could see highs in the 80s later this week—not like you’re going anywhere!

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The Richmond Police Department reports that Makayla A. Gregory, 20, was shot to death on Saturday night on the 2000 block of Sussex Street. Another victim is being treated for life-threatening injuries and is listed in critical condition.

Good morning, RVA! It’s 47 °F, and while we may have some warmer temperatures today, beware tonight and tomorrow night! NBC12’s Andrew Freiden says we’ve got a chance for garden-killing frost both nights and helpfully points to this post on how to avoid damage to your vegetable younglings if you’ve already put them in the ground.

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As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 585 new positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth and 32 new deaths as a result of the virus. VDH reports 136 new cases over the last two days in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 61, Henrico: 40, and Richmond: 35). Since VDH missed Wednesday’s data dump, they included all of those results in Thursday’s data dump, and now all my graphs are weird. That said, I think we’ve seen a four-day decrease in reported positive cases, which is the first time that’s ever happened in Virginia. Eternal caveat to that: The Commonwealth continues to do fewer tests per capita than almost any other state in America. Related: The Virginia Mercury has a column from Tram Nguyen, co-executive director of New Virginia Majority, about the Governor’s current plan to move into Phase One of recovery by May 15th, saying “The move to reopen should also include providing those with little or no health insurance access to health care facilities and reliable medical treatments that are affordable, culturally-sensitive, and are considerate of language accessibility. Until we can keep our most vulnerable safe and cared for, Governor Northam must reconsider his premature reopening. Virginia should be a welcoming place for all of us, not a place where some of us are dispensable.”

It is Friday, and the Virginia Employment Commissions has released their weekly unemployment chartsandgraphs update. While the number of new claimants continues to decrease, the number of continued claimants continues to go up each and every week. As of May 2nd, there were 436,320 folks total filing for unemployment insurance. Even with the decrease in new claimants, the VEC reminds us that while “the volumes of initial claims has retreated from its recent peak, it may not return to pre-pandemic levels for some time.” VEC has also put together this data dashboard that includes a bit of demographic data. As you could have probably guessed, Black Virginians represent 28% of claimants yet only around 20% of the total population of the state.

Good morning, RVA! It’s 41 °F, but today looks pretty excellent once things warm up a bit. Expect highs in the mid 60s and plenty of sunshine. We might see some rain over the weekend paired with some chilly morning temperatures.

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As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports…nothing! Sounds like they had a technology issues, and yesterday’s data dump never happened. I hope with today’s update they also make yesterday’s data available. In lieu of numbers, read this press release from the Legal Aid Justice Center that calls Governor Northam’s announcement to move to Phase One of recovery on May 15th "reckless and cruel." Further: “Until we can reliably deliver basic public health protections and care—especially to marginalized communities—and take aggressive steps to minimize the cruel and inequitable effects of the pandemic, Virginia must stay closed for business. There is no acceptable margin of lives lost or families devastated that justifies prioritizing economic pressures over the health and safety of people, especially when Black and brown Virginians would bear the brunt of this deadly calculation.”

Good morning, RVA! It’s 50 °F, and highs today will hang out in the mid 60s. Expect some clouds and teensy chance of rain here and there throughout the day. Tomorrow looks like a possible stunner, though.

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As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 764 new positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth and 29 new deaths as a result of the virus. VDH reports 85 new cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 45, Henrico: 21, and Richmond: 19). A while back, VDH started posting positive cases, hospitalizations, and deaths disaggregated by race. I only started capturing those numbers on April 29th (and I can’t find historical data on the VDH’s website at the moment—they seem to replace the data with a new spreadsheet every day?) but I now have a week’s worth of data. Here’s a chart of the percentages that Black people make up of positive cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in Richmond, Henrico, and Chesterfield combined. As of yesterday, Black folks are overrepresented in all three categories and make up 38% of the positive cases, 56% of the hospitalizations, and 44% of the deaths, while they only account for 32% of the region’s population. I’ve linked to a couple of things in the past about how Black people are acutely impacted by COVID-19—as a result of centuries of inequitable health and social policies—and the reality in Central Virginia is no different. When our local leaders start talking about recovery, we should hold them accountable to an equitable recovery process that seeks to protect our region’s people of color. In other random spreadsheet news, VDH has continued to post both the number of “total people tested” and the number of “unique people tested.” Yesterday, according to the data, 1,368 unique people got tested 6,802 times. I’m not sure what to make of it, but that’s what the numbers say! Either way, it’s still not enough tests. The Richmond Times-Dispatch says Virginia still sits at the very, very bottom (48th!) when it comes to testing rates among states.

Karri Peifer, also at the RTD, talked to a bunch of restaurant owners about how the ever-changing nature of the crisis and total lack of certainty has been incredibly frustrating for their businesses. This paragraph captures, I’m sure, what thousands and thousands of small business owners are feeling after Governor Northam’s decision to lurch Virginia into Phase One of recovery on May 15th: “Some restaurant owners kept their doors open, some closed. Some opened, then closed, then opened again. Some are ramping up to open, given Gov. Ralph Northam’s announcement Monday that some restrictions could be lifted starting next week. None of them are sure which was the right decision. Many are still waiting on their federal Paycheck Protection Program loan. Those who got it aren’t sure how they’re supposed to use it.” Like yesterday’s article on the supply chain for testing swabs, this look into the practicals of navigating state and federal relief programs is stressful. Note: Standard disclaimer about how I think restaurants get the lion’s share of coverage, of course, applies.

Good morning, RVA! It’s 50 °F, and highs today will hang out in the mid 60s. Expect some clouds and teensy chance of rain here and there throughout the day. Tomorrow looks like a possible stunner, though.

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As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 764 new positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth and 29 new deaths as a result of the virus. VDH reports 85 new cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 45, Henrico: 21, and Richmond: 19). A while back, VDH started posting positive cases, hospitalizations, and deaths disaggregated by race. I only started capturing those numbers on April 29th (and I can’t find historical data on the VDH’s website at the moment—they seem to replace the data with a new spreadsheet every day?) but I now have a week’s worth of data. Here’s a chart of the percentages that Black people make up of positive cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in Richmond, Henrico, and Chesterfield combined. As of yesterday, Black folks are overrepresented in all three categories and make up 38% of the positive cases, 56% of the hospitalizations, and 44% of the deaths, while they only account for 32% of the region’s population. I’ve linked to a couple of things in the past about how Black people are acutely impacted by COVID-19—as a result of centuries of inequitable health and social policies—and the reality in Central Virginia is no different. When our local leaders start talking about recovery, we should hold them accountable to an equitable recovery process that seeks to protect our region’s people of color. In other random spreadsheet news, VDH has continued to post both the number of “total people tested” and the number of “unique people tested.” Yesterday, according to the data, 1,368 unique people got tested 6,802 times. I’m not sure what to make of it, but that’s what the numbers say! Either way, it’s still not enough tests. The Richmond Times-Dispatch says Virginia still sits at the very, very bottom (48th!) when it comes to testing rates among states.

Karri Peifer, also at the RTD, talked to a bunch of restaurant owners about how the ever-changing nature of the crisis and total lack of certainty has been incredibly frustrating for their businesses. This paragraph captures, I’m sure, what thousands and thousands of small business owners are feeling after Governor Northam’s decision to lurch Virginia into Phase One of recovery on May 15th: “Some restaurant owners kept their doors open, some closed. Some opened, then closed, then opened again. Some are ramping up to open, given Gov. Ralph Northam’s announcement Monday that some restrictions could be lifted starting next week. None of them are sure which was the right decision. Many are still waiting on their federal Paycheck Protection Program loan. Those who got it aren’t sure how they’re supposed to use it.” Like yesterday’s article on the supply chain for testing swabs, this look into the practicals of navigating state and federal relief programs is stressful. Note: Standard disclaimer about how I think restaurants get the lion’s share of coverage, of course, applies.

Good morning, RVA! It’s 51 °F, and so long, excellent weather. Today you can expect highs in the mid 50s and rain later this afternoon. Rad weather maybe returns on Thursday?

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As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 821 new positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth and 24 new deaths as a result of the virus. VDH reports 26 new cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 0, Henrico: 10, and Richmond: 16). Today is Tuesday, so you can probably expect a spike in those numbers. At the Governor’s press conference yesterday, he announced that, despite whatever the data may say, he expects Virginia to move into Phase One of recovery by May 15th. Here’s Kate Masters at the Virginia Mercury: “The announcement comes before a 14-day downward trend in new COVID-19 cases or a decline in hospitalization numbers — metrics Northam previously said the state would need to meet before loosening the business and social distancing restrictions that have become the new normal for Virginians since March.“ This is incredibly frustrating. What was the point of announcing all of those data-based guidelines if Northam just had his sights set on May 15th anyway? What happens if the data don’t cooperate and get in line for his new two-week deadline? Northam’s also switching his messaging to “safer at home” instead of “stay at home,” but, as always, safer at home for whom? Phase One sends employees at “restaurants, recreation, and personal care business such as hair salons and spas”—mostly working-class people—back to work. Folks who are privileged enough to have good insurance and can work from home are encouraged to continue doing so. Here’s a quote from the Governor, take a second and think about who the “you” in this quote is: “Here’s the bottom line…You’ll be able to get your hair cut, but you’ll need an appointment. It means you can go out to eat again, but restaurants will use less of their seating to spread people out. Phase One means more retail establishments can be open, but they’ll have to operate at lower capacity.” At some point we substituted “flatten the curve” for “the healthcare systems will not be overwhelmed,” and those two things are not at all the same. We wanted to do the former to prevent the latter, but just because we’ve managed to keep our hospitals up and running doesn’t mean that the virus has vanished. In fact, the Commonwealth is still short on testing, more and more Virginian’s are reporting positive every day, and new hospitalizations are not going down. Plus, do we even really understand the impacts of COVID-19 yet? This sentence, again from Kate Masters, shouldn’t make any Virginians feel great: “The new guidelines align Virginia more closely with southern neighbors, including Tennessee and Georgia, than with other regional partners including Maryland and Washington, D.C.” Great.

Here, instead, is some guidance from Mayor Stoney: Stay home! You can also read the memo the Mayor sent to Council the other day (PDF). It’s got lots of good info, including a breakdown of Richmond’s COVID-19 data by race. As of May 1st, 14 out of 15 Richmonders who have died as a result of the virus are Black.

Good morning, RVA! It’s 51 °F, and so long, excellent weather. Today you can expect highs in the mid 50s and rain later this afternoon. Rad weather maybe returns on Thursday?

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As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 821 new positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth and 24 new deaths as a result of the virus. VDH reports 26 new cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 0, Henrico: 10, and Richmond: 16). Today is Tuesday, so you can probably expect a spike in those numbers. At the Governor’s press conference yesterday, he announced that, despite whatever the data may say, he expects Virginia to move into Phase One of recovery by May 15th. Here’s Kate Masters at the Virginia Mercury: “The announcement comes before a 14-day downward trend in new COVID-19 cases or a decline in hospitalization numbers — metrics Northam previously said the state would need to meet before loosening the business and social distancing restrictions that have become the new normal for Virginians since March.“ This is incredibly frustrating. What was the point of announcing all of those data-based guidelines if Northam just had his sights set on May 15th anyway? What happens if the data don’t cooperate and get in line for his new two-week deadline? Northam’s also switching his messaging to “safer at home” instead of “stay at home,” but, as always, safer at home for whom? Phase One sends employees at “restaurants, recreation, and personal care business such as hair salons and spas”—mostly working-class people—back to work. Folks who are privileged enough to have good insurance and can work from home are encouraged to continue doing so. Here’s a quote from the Governor, take a second and think about who the “you” in this quote is: “Here’s the bottom line…You’ll be able to get your hair cut, but you’ll need an appointment. It means you can go out to eat again, but restaurants will use less of their seating to spread people out. Phase One means more retail establishments can be open, but they’ll have to operate at lower capacity.” At some point we substituted “flatten the curve” for “the healthcare systems will not be overwhelmed,” and those two things are not at all the same. We wanted to do the former to prevent the latter, but just because we’ve managed to keep our hospitals up and running doesn’t mean that the virus has vanished. In fact, the Commonwealth is still short on testing, more and more Virginian’s are reporting positive every day, and new hospitalizations are not going down. Plus, do we even really understand the impacts of COVID-19 yet? This sentence, again from Kate Masters, shouldn’t make any Virginians feel great: “The new guidelines align Virginia more closely with southern neighbors, including Tennessee and Georgia, than with other regional partners including Maryland and Washington, D.C.” Great.

Here, instead, is some guidance from Mayor Stoney: Stay home! You can also read the memo the Mayor sent to Council the other day (PDF). It’s got lots of good info, including a breakdown of Richmond’s COVID-19 data by race. As of May 1st, 14 out of 15 Richmonders who have died as a result of the virus are Black.

Good morning, RVA! It’s 64 °F, and today looks pretty wonderful. Enjoy highs in the mid-to-upper 70s and lots of sunshine. Spend some time on the stoop!

Water cooler

As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 940 new positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth and 44 new deaths as a result of the virus. VDH reports 57 new cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 8, Henrico: 28, and Richmond: 21). As you might have noticed, I’ve switched from highlighting the total number of reported positive cases and deaths to new reported positive cases and deaths. Now that the cumulative numbers are sufficiently large (18,671 total reported positive cases in Virginia) my brain has a hard time telling even basic things like if more people are getting sick each day. I hope writing about this different set of numbers will help with that. For those keeping track at home: The number of new reported positive cases continues to go up, so has the number of reported tests, but hospitalizations have stayed mostly flat with a slight increase. Over the weekend, VDH also started posting “total people tested” in addition to “unique people tested” since, presumably, folks can get tested multiple times. These two numbers, unfortunately, aren’t comparable so for now at least I’ll keep making my charts using the original numbers. Kate Masters at the Virginia Mercury reports that state officials say “…the new methodology will make it easier for the state to calculate the total percentage of COVID-19 tests that come back positive. That metric is considered important in evaluating the severity of outbreaks in different areas and — once more widespread testing is available — whether the virus appears to be accelerating or abating.” I wish the State would have started with this methodology, or at least announced a change of methodology when they announced the goals they’re looking to meet to lift some of the social-distancing restrictions. Now it just looks like a way to increase the denominator in that percent-positive calculation.

Lots of local budget conversations today for you, yes you, to participate in! First, if you want to weigh in on the $24 million of cuts Richmond Public Schools needs to make, you can send a public comment to speakers@rvaschools.net by 1:00 PM today. Here’s a table of proposed cuts (PDF) if you’d like to advocate for protecting anything in particular. Personally, I’ll be sending a note of support for the middle school STEM academies, one of which is at Henderson, my neighborhood middle school. Second, City Council will host another budget amendment session today. So far they’ve had a discussion on exactly one budget amendment, submitted by Councilmember Lynch. Unless something dramatic happens, like a quarantine-fueled outburst of productivity from one or several councilmembers, it looks like we’re headed toward adopting the Mayor’s budget pretty much as is. If you like the Mayor’s budget, that’s fine! If you feel like he could have done a better job—or if you’re a councilmember that’s spent some time criticizing that budget—there’s not a ton of time left to make improvements. If you’d like to weigh in, you can send an email to cityclerksoffice@richmondgov.com by 10:00 AM (note the earlier time). Maybe ask Council to preserve the $900,000 of new sidewalk money that could have done some real good on The Southside: Where the Sidewalk Ends.

Good morning, RVA! It’s 62 °F, and today’s weather looks pretty great. Expect highs in the mid 70s and, eventually, some sunshine. Rain moves into town tomorrow evening!

Water cooler

As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 890 positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth, and 22 people in Virginia have died as a result of the virus. That’s almost double both numbers from Friday morning (460 and 13 respectively). VDH reports 78 cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 13, Henrico: 40, and Richmond: 25). Over 10,000 people have received the COVID-19 test.

Samuel Northrop at the Richmond Times-Dispatch as a brutal recap of the situation at the Canterbury Rehabilitation & Healthcare facility which has eight of Henrico’s 40 COVID-19 deaths. Health officials have introduced a number of measure to prevent the spread of the virus in and out of the facility, including showers and “bleach foot baths.”

Good morning, RVA! It’s 53 °F, and today’s highs are way up into the mid 70s. Enjoy it while you can this afternoon, taking a walk, run, or a roll around your neighborhood. Rain will move in tonight, and the rest of the weekend looks pretty cloudy.

Water cooler

As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 460 positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth, and 13 people in Virginia have died as a result of the virus. VDH reports 35 cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 12, Henrico: 21, and Richmond: 14). New on the aforelinked page are age, sex, and race information for reported positive cases. To dispel any sense you may have that this disease only impacts the elderly: About 45% of all reported positive cases are folks between the ages of 20 and 50. The Richmond Times-Dispatch has some more clarification on the accuracy of these reported numbers: “On March 19, state health officials said there’s a 19-hour lag in the reporting of statewide numbers, and figures on the website might not include cases reported by individual localities or local health districts. The Health Department did not explain Thursday precisely why there could be an eight-day lag between reported symptoms and test results. A shortage of tests and testing equipment have been reported across the country this month, and Virginia has turned to private labs to help provide test results.” So, please, don’t use these numbers as a direct indicator of the spread of coronavirus in Virginia. Don’t let them convince you that “it’s only 460 case.” But, please, do stay home if you can and help prevent further spread of the virus!

The Governor “directed all hospitals to stop performing elective surgeries or procedures to help conserve supplies of personal protective equipment.” That’s good and cool, I guess, but, like, when he is going to commit to a full stay-at-home order? Remember what Dr. Fauci says about our response to this pandemic: “…if it look like you’re overreacting, you’re probably doing the right thing.” Personally, at this moment in our viruscurve, I’d like to see more overreacting from the State before things get out of hand. Also, I think it’s time for an emergency session of the General Assembly. Localities need guidance and support—both through policy and through cash. As far as I know, the State’s budget is not yet finalized, and legislators could work through the changes they’ll need to make to give cities and counties across the Commonwealth the funding needed to maintain core services. A couple days ago, Del. Carroll Foy asked for an emergency session to raise the weekly unemployment cap. I wonder if Richmond’s legislators will ask/have asked for an emergency session? The City will have a ton of needs very, very soon, and I think I’d like to see some of that Fauci-style overreacting from our elected reps sooner rather than later.

Good morning, RVA! It’s 53 °F, and today’s highs are way up into the mid 70s. Enjoy it while you can this afternoon, taking a walk, run, or a roll around your neighborhood. Rain will move in tonight, and the rest of the weekend looks pretty cloudy.

Water cooler

As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 460 positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth, and 13 people in Virginia have died as a result of the virus. VDH reports 35 cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 12, Henrico: 21, and Richmond: 14). New on the aforelinked page are age, sex, and race information for reported positive cases. To dispel any sense you may have that this disease only impacts the elderly: About 45% of all reported positive cases are folks between the ages of 20 and 50. The Richmond Times-Dispatch has some more clarification on the accuracy of these reported numbers: “On March 19, state health officials said there’s a 19-hour lag in the reporting of statewide numbers, and figures on the website might not include cases reported by individual localities or local health districts. The Health Department did not explain Thursday precisely why there could be an eight-day lag between reported symptoms and test results. A shortage of tests and testing equipment have been reported across the country this month, and Virginia has turned to private labs to help provide test results.” So, please, don’t use these numbers as a direct indicator of the spread of coronavirus in Virginia. Don’t let them convince you that “it’s only 460 case.” But, please, do stay home if you can and help prevent further spread of the virus!

The Governor “directed all hospitals to stop performing elective surgeries or procedures to help conserve supplies of personal protective equipment.” That’s good and cool, I guess, but, like, when he is going to commit to a full stay-at-home order? Remember what Dr. Fauci says about our response to this pandemic: “…if it look like you’re overreacting, you’re probably doing the right thing.” Personally, at this moment in our viruscurve, I’d like to see more overreacting from the State before things get out of hand. Also, I think it’s time for an emergency session of the General Assembly. Localities need guidance and support—both through policy and through cash. As far as I know, the State’s budget is not yet finalized, and legislators could work through the changes they’ll need to make to give cities and counties across the Commonwealth the funding needed to maintain core services. A couple days ago, Del. Carroll Foy asked for an emergency session to raise the weekly unemployment cap. I wonder if Richmond’s legislators will ask/have asked for an emergency session? The City will have a ton of needs very, very soon, and I think I’d like to see some of that Fauci-style overreacting from our elected reps sooner rather than later.

Good morning, RVA! It’s 41 °F, and the rain has moved on outta here. Today expect sunshine at some point and temperatures right around 60 °F. This might be our coolest day for a while.

Water cooler

As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 391 positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth, and nine people in Virginia have died as a result of the virus. VDH reports 35 cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 11, Henrico: 20, and Richmond: 13). This is the biggest single-day increase in reported positive cases so far, and it’s important to remember just that: These are folks that have been tested and have had those test results reported by VDH. “391” should not be taken as a direct measure of the amount of COVID-19 cases in Virginia! There are, most likely, many, many people who are not in high-risk groups and weren’t tested or simply never developed major symptoms (an especially sneaky part of this particular virus that aids in transmission). When looking at these numbers each day, please keep in mind that both reported positive cases and deaths are only indirect measure of the extend of the virus in Virginia. For comparison: Georgia has 1,387 reported cases and 47 deaths, while Maryland has 423 reported cases and four deaths.

The Richmond Police Department has released their guidelines for dealing with folks violating the Governor’s new rules on social distancing. If you need a refresher on those rules, you can find it here, but, basically, no gatherings over 10 people and a bunch of non-essential businesses need to close as of last night. First: Even if you think you’re being helpful, do not call 911 if you see a business out of compliance or a gaggle of springbreakers at Texas Beach with their PBRs. Please use RPD’s non-emergency number instead (804.646.5100). To handle noncompliant businesses, springbreakers, or corona truthers, the RPD will first give a warning to the responsible parties, then issue a Class 1 misdemeanor, and then “contact supervision for assistance and proceed with criminal charges, if appropriate.” Maybe this is naive, but I’ll be surprised if anyone is actually charged with a misdemeanor for violating the Governor’s executive order.

Good morning, RVA! It’s 40 °F and rainy. Looks like the rain will continue throughout the day and into the afternoon. After we get through today’s wet forecast, we’ve got two wonderful-looking days ahead of us.

Water cooler

As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 290 positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealth, and seven people in Virginia have died as a result of the virus. VDH reports 35 cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 10, Henrico: 14, and Richmond: 11).

Alright! RPS Superintendent Jason Kamras got some guidance from the Virginia Department of Education (which you can read for yourself right here (PDF)) about how to handle students, graduations, and curriculum in This Most Unusual Time. Since it’s from the State, this applies across the Commonwealth, but there is some flexibility in the guidance. Your mileage may vary with how different school districts decide to go about implementation. The gist: high school seniors will receive their diplomas, GPAs are kind of a question mark, and students will not be held back. That last one though comes with some caveats. Here’s Kamras again, “That said, we will need to provide a plan for how students will learn the content they would have otherwise been exposed to this spring. That could take the form of online learning and/or physical packets now, additional instructional time this summer, a longer 2020–21 school year, and/or other measures.” Sounds like those of us trying to quickly figure out homeschooling will have even more to learn over the next couple months. If you’ve got questions—in general or about your specific situation—you can submit them to RPS here.